South West Regional Skills Enterprise and Employment Analysis 2007/2008

Final Report

4.12 Skills supply

4.12.3 Will future supply meet future demand?

Uncertainties about the projections of demand for skills and their supply make it difficult to judge whether the projected supply of skills will meet demand. It is a matter for debate as to whether or not ‘demand’ in its real sense can be projected. Similarly, future supply will be influenced by labour market changes such as overall activity and employment rates as well as demographic changes.

With these caveats, Leitch has tried to make some assessment of the degree to which the projections of future demand and supply ‘match’. This comparison suggests that, on the basis of current ambitions and occupational trends, there would be:

• An ‘over supply’ of working age people with no or low qualifications, especially those with no qualifications, by 2020.
• The picture in the middle is mixed, with perhaps too many at Level 2, and too few at Level 3, although the snapshot nature of these projections means that many of those at Levels 2 and 3 are in younger age groups and will progress to higher levels, and increasing the proportion at Level 2 will be an important step in getting people to higher levels.
• At the higher-skilled end, these projections imply a small over supply, although given uncertainty around the projections and the comparisons, it is more likely that the supply is broadly consistent with the direction of employment at higher levels on current trends.

Conclusions

Whilst the South West has highly qualified workforce, projections of future demand show that supply will need to increase demand at intermediate and higher levels.

The supply of Level 3 skills in the region will need to improve to meet the predicted shortfall of Level 3 skills.

To ensure that pathways to progress are developed and enhanced it will be essential for the LSC and Higher Education to work closely together to ensure that vocational Level 3 students see clear pathways to HE.

Graduate apprenticeships may also be a way forward.