South West Regional Skills Enterprise and Employment Analysis 2007/2008

Final Report

4.12 Skills supply

4.12.1 Demographic Issues

Figure 8 below shows the age distribution of the South West population. This will be a significant factor in the nature of the workforce, the skills they possess and the nature and likelihood of skills acquisition in the future.

The South West has the oldest population structure of all regions in England. By 2015, the 50+ age group is projected to account for 42% of the region’s population against 37% nationally.

Figure 8: Population of the South West and England by sex and age-band, 2006 (Click image to open in new window)

Source: ONS 2003-based subnational projections - year 2006

According to the South West LSC Strategic Analysis, other significant features are:

• Projected growth of 2% in the working age population (compared with 1.6% in England) over the next five years.
• Among 16-18 year olds, the regional population growth rate is projected to decline before an actual annual reduction is seen in numbers of 16-18 year olds from 2009 onwards.
• The South West is less ethnically diverse than England as a whole, with 96% of its population White British and Irish.
• A 34% increase in the size of the migrant population born between 1991 and 2001. Migrants now represent 4.43% of the total population.
• At 8.6%, the South West has the third lowest proportion of its area in the most deprived 20% of England.
• In terms of skills deprivation, the West of England LSC has the greatest problem.
• In terms of educational deprivation, the West of England has almost 21% of its area in the worst 20% of England, with Bristol having the two most deprived.
• Largest of the nine English regions with the largest proportion of rural land. There is a divide between the more ‘urban’ north east and the more rural south west of the region and this is reflected in the population density of 3,652 people /km2 in Bristol to 44 people /km2 in West Devon. Rurality presents challenges for distribution of learning (particularly so for the 14-19 Diplomas).

To illustrate the depth of the demographic issue in the region and the replacement demand needs, Figure 9 shows the sectors and the proportions of their workforces over the age of 50.

Figure 9: Percentage of workforce over 50 years, by SSC, 2005 (Click image to open in new window)

Source: Skills and Intelligence Module, Sector Balance Sheet

Conclusions

Demographic change is a significant issue for the UK as a whole and the South West in particular.

The ageing workforce will have a particular impact on a range of sectors which have a high proportion of the workforce over age 50 and will face significant replacement demand issues in the next decade. The RSP should continue to monitor the impact of the ageing workforce on skills, employment and economic activity in the region and work with sectors most affected by an ageing workforce to identify solutions.

The likelihood of a person taking up training reduces with age and this needs to be addressed by employers and providers alike.

More flexible working arrangements which retain older workers in the workforce should be encouraged.

The RSP should lead a campaign raising awareness of and encouraging flexible working.